A perfect storm of circumstances created a worst-case scenario for flooded Texas communities
In the early hours of Independence Day, rain pelted sleeping communities in central Texas. No one knew yet how devastating the storm would become.

Entire neighborhoods vanished in flash flooding throughout the weekend, while residents and campers were swept away in the surging waters.

The death toll across the state eclipsed 100 by Tuesday, and search and rescue efforts persist.

As communities continue recovering from the catastrophic floods, questions swirl around how this tragedy happened.

Several compounding factors made the flooding in central Texas a worst-case scenario.

A summer’s worth of rain quickly fell over bone-dry soil
The National Weather Service began forecasting the threat of flooding in Kerr County as early as Thursday morning with a hazardous flood outlook.

But the conditions turned deadly when more than an entire summer’s worth of rain fell in some areas over just a few hours Friday morning.

A timelapse video captured on Friday shows how to play solar queen quickly floodwaters rose along the Llano River in Kingsland, Texas.
A timelapse video captured on Friday shows how quickly floodwaters rose along the Llano River in Kingsland, Texas. Robert Ivey
Hunt, Texas, received about 6.5 inches of rain in just three hours — a 1-in-100-year rainfall event for the area.

Drought conditions in central Texas are among the worst in the United States, making it difficult for the bone-dry soil to absorb rain and leaving the area particularly susceptible to flooding.

The pouring rain sent river levels surging and triggered flash flooding.

The Guadalupe River, which runs along several summer camps, rose from about 3 feet to 30 feet on Friday.

The overwhelming rainfall is another example of rising global temperatures pushing weather toward extremes, events that are becoming more and more frequent.

Texas has already seen multiple dangerous flooding events this year, and the United States saw a record number of flash flood emergencies last year.

Children’s camps located in areas known to have high flood risk
There are at least 18 camps, including Camp Mystic, situated along the Guadalupe River. Many of them are in areas known to flood.

Some, like Camp Mystic, were in session when the floods hit. The all-girls Christian camp had about 750 campers on site.

As the nearby river rose more than 20 feet in less than two hours during Friday’s rains, at least 12 of those camps sustained flood damage. Some of it was catastrophic.

When more rain falls than the ground can absorb, it runs downhill, pulled by gravity into streams, creeks and rivers. The rain fills the waterways beyond their banks and the excess overflows in predictable patterns that follow the terrain.

Camp Mystic is located at a dangerous confluence of the South Fork Guadalupe River and Cypress Creek, where flood waters converged. Much of the camp carries at least some level of known flood risk, according to FEMA’s National Flood Hazard Layer.